Social Media Gurus Offer Their Predictions for 2009: A Few That Might Resonate With Nonprofits

Remix of Mstephen's Flickr Photo

It's that time of year again.  Lucy Bernholz has been sharing her predictions for philanthropy and buzzwords for 2009.  Peter Kim asked a group of social media experts in business for their predictions about social media for 2009.  The following gurus have gazed into their crystal balls: 

David Armano
Rohit Bhargava
Pete Blackshaw
Chris Brogan
Todd Defren
Jason Falls
Ann Handley
Joseph Jaffe
Charlene Li
Ben McConnell
Scott Monty
Jeremiah Owyang
Andy Sernovitz
Greg Verdino

You can find their predictions in this PDF.  I read through the paper and pulled out a couple of predictions that resonated and may be applicable to the nonprofit sector.

Charlene Li predicts that "Obama-maniacs will spawn a new age of activism."   She goes to explain:

• The millions of online-activated volunteers in the Obama campaign will find the drudgery of governing unappealing and abandon Obama's citizen government movement.  Looking for new challenges, they will champion causes ranging from gay marriage to local school improvements.  Non-profits will recognize the potential of bringing on these virtual community organizations, especially their ability to raise in tiny increments in a down economy.   So, despite a recession, charitable giving will have new numerous new -- albeit smaller sources of contributions.

Greg Verdino predicts the shrinkage of the social graph.

• "While the total population of social media users will continue to grow, many people will scale back on the both the number of accounts they maintain AND their number of so-called friends and followers." I've been hearing snippets of this from nonprofits and I've been experiencing it myself.

This is similar to what Pete Blackshaw is predicting in terms of "social media indigestion."  I just have to quote him because he says it sooooo well:

"Many of us are going to wake up in 2009 wondering what did we eat?  Everything from hastily assembled friends list to twitter followers to groups, apps, and widgets that we "impulse adopted" yet rarely revisited.   Some of us will join the Social Media equivalent of Weight Watchers eager to trim the excess and rediscover a modicum of "don't follow everything" discipline."

Here here!  We'll adopt a less is more approach with our information coping skills.

Rohit Bhargava offers up a version of the Wired/Tired list of what corporate marketers will do in 2009.   Will nonprofits follow?

• Implement listening programs through social media to get real time authentic knowledge that is actionable versus commissioning research. 

Todd Defren predicts simplified measurement and that marketing gurus will advocate for a simplified approach in 2009.

Social Media Influencers Predictions 2009 By Trendsspotting

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What social media predictions will impact the nonprofit sector in 2009?

Comments

[evonne ~inKenzo~]

Simplicity is a great start. Nonprofits need maximum efficiency now and may find that they have many new volunteers willing to help them in lieu of big $ donations they may have seen in the past. This fuels:

1) Hosting one web contest with incentives that feed both your org and your people while building new relationships

2) Grassroots initiatives that require little $ but make a big impact, many based on recycling and retooling existing resources

3) Use of *one tag everywhere* approach to maximize organizational footprint without SMexhaustion

4) Growth of aggregators, broadcasting tools like Ping.fm and filtering tools like Peoplebrowsr to cut out the extra chatter and focus on impact made with each interaction

5) Focused SMS, IM and Twitter use take on narrower niches

[frank]

Simplicity and laser focus (i.e. the Obama Campaign) ... I think these definitely apply to the Nonprofit world.

Another prediction might be: 'Nonprofits will begin to see the value in and use social media more than ever before'

I say this because we all know that nonprofits tend to be behind the curve (some times more than mainstream adoption) for a variety of reasons.

--
http://twitter.com/franswaa

[Charlene Li]

Beth, you and this blog were the inspiration for my Obama-maniacs prediction. My hope is that non-profits will start activating their own user base for volunteerism as well as contributions. There's no better time to start than now.

[evonne ~inKenzo~]

One more prediction:

Orgs will use social media more than ever before, but will do it with volunteers....the key is to FEED YOUR PEOPLE and they will be more than happy to help you grow. Our tech/art org projects are growing quickly with dynamic and smart volunteers in part because we have a great meal around the table together every two weeks. We offer healthy sustenance both as real, honest connection and as a marketing tool to share with any org that cares about the health of their community long term.

Virtual lives and large social networks can be great fun, but at the end of the day we still need to eat and feel connected to real people. Tweetups also satisfy this urge and more orgs will leverage the Tweetup for Good concept to grow their work in 2009.

[Kendra Kellogg (E-Advocate)]

Hi Beth,

You know me and the E-Advocate- I am very happy to see Charlene Li's prediction. I can not champion the use of social media more for volunteer recruitment and campaign engagement. Obama tapped into a force and I hope that nonprofits follow.

Charlene Li's prediction will hopefully work in tandum with Rohit Bhargava's prediction. You have to listen to your online volunteers and engage in real time to know your key personnel and maximize efforts.

[Catherine]

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[Neil Wiliams]

Shedding social media weight is no bad thing though. Bingeing and dieting makes sense here. Speculate, try things out, then consolidate with the tools you've found most useful and integrated into your life.

Not all tools will survive!

[Alison Lowndes]

In this economic climate its great to see free online resources being put to good use, people may well start to give back a little now in a non-$$-way but going completely off-subject .. HOW? How? how do you get time to do everything you do, Beth ?
I have serious task-overload right now, trying to run an online non-profit. Its the holiday season so we all have a lot more to do/ organise/ worry about but I predict that only the most efficient time-managers will benefit from social networking as other people just won't have the time to use or benefit from it.

Information coping skills .. I need more!

[Beth Kanter]

@Allison - I'm trying to focus on what is most important, try to ignore the "urgent less important" stuff. I carve out time for exercise and take breaks away from the computer - which helps productivity. Less is more.