Has Facebook Entered the Trough of Disillusionment?

My FLickr Stream

That's a diagram I created to illustrate Gartner's Technology Hype Cycles

  I thought about that diagram when I read Shel Israel's post "Is Facebook starting to fade?"  He points to some early warning signs, but admits he doesn't have a crystal ball.  He does go on to say:

Personally, I think Facebook remains in the most promising position of any new company I know. Social Networks is the killer app of social media and Facebook is the most enjoyable place I have yet seen to meet people with whom I share common interests. But change is in an accelerated mode these days, and if Facebook does not pay attention, it could very easily find it's position more vulnerable than it appears to be today.

Comments

[Jon Stahl]

I certainly think there are a lot of inflated expectations. So a trip through the trough certainly seems in order. ;-)

[Jon Stahl]

I certainly think there are a lot of inflated expectations. So a trip through the trough certainly seems in order. ;-)

[Dan Keldsen]

I must say, I prefer the Chasm, per Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm" book, who came up with the technology lifecycle terminology far before Gartner decided to discuss their hype cycle concept.

Although while the hype MAY be dying out, any website with what, 50 million users, can't (to me) help but be beyond the Chasm.

[Beth Kanter]

Jon,

It was like a year ago when I created that visual based on the Second Life hype/back lash. HEre we go again.

[Brian Kelly]

I have recently suggested that The Opening Up Of Facebook will lead to greater interest in Facebook due to (a) Mark Zuckerberg's announcement that "Facebook wants to make members’ data portable" (b) new tools for making Facebook app development easier and (c) Facebook providing more that just social networking facilities.

Brian Kelly, UKOLN